The “Fresh Start” deal at Stormont has reduced even fervent supporters of Sinn Fein to silence and some, such as the editor of the Andersonstown News, to vocal criticism. They search in vain for any justification.  They ask their leadership why they signed up. The leaders mumble that they have some sticking plaster that will protect some of the most vulnerable for a while and that in any case, by voting for an enabling act, they have ensured that it is the dirty Brits who brought in the “Tory cuts”.  However it is not very long before Martin McGuinness gets to the root of the matter – without “Fresh Start” there would be no Stormont. The British were prepared to close down the pantomime. The workers must sacrifice themselves for the failed administration.  

The immediate problem in building resistance is that much of the anti-austerity lobby, including the trade union leadership, agree with him. Activists organising against the wave of austerity and sectarianism advancing towards us must be willing to argue that the existence of Stormont only aids in promoting our impoverishment and in dividing the working class and that the best response is to sweep it away.

Austerity

The main focus of political analysis has fallen on the austerity elements. That is easily dealt with. The full austerity agenda is being implemented, with the exception of the bedroom tax.

Welfare and invalidity payments will be slashed and an army of snoops and inspectors let loose to terrorise  claimants.

Mass redundancy will decimate public services.

There will be a firesale of public resources to the private sector.

The introduction of the corporation tax subsidy will see the transfer of hundreds of millions from the public purse to private companies.

Outside of the settlement is a sum of £585 million has been set aside to compensate victims of the cuts. This is about £20 million larger than the sum allocated in the 2014 Stormont House deal. However it applies for four years rather than six and is meant to ameliorate not just immediate welfare cuts, but the much larger effects of broader cuts now being brought in by Westminster.

The rest of the detail is a massive shell game where everyone dodges responsibility. An enabling act transfers the blame for "Tory cuts" to Westminster and allows Sinn Fein to cling to shreds of "anti austerity".  Money is moved from department to department to obscure the fact that the deal involves balancing the books by additional cuts in public services. Much of the money is being counted twice - it already existed in a hardship fund under the old rules. The British held to their pledge not to fund a welfare compensation package but have increased funds for cross-community projects administered by Stormont - pouring petrol on an existing bonfire of bribery and      corruption.

The cleverest scheme of all is to hand over administration of welfare compensation to civic society - an open invitation to charities, NGOs and Trade Union leaders to forget opposition and administer the austerity.

Sectarian deal

In the excitement the implementation of political elements of the Stormont House Agreement of 2014 was largely overlooked.

Yet it should not be overlooked. The Stormont House agreement was the outcome of the unionist revolt, led by sections of the DUP leadership in coalition with the loyal orders and paramilitaries, to tear up major elements of the Good Friday settlement. It involves concessions by Nationalists on sectarian parades and the use of flags and loyalist insignia as instruments of sectarian intimidation. It exposes an unpleasant reality - that sectarianism is built into every crevice of the society and will continue indefinitely.

Proposals to deal with the past have been written out of the agreement. In the circumstances this means that the question has been closed by the British and local parties. The explanation given is that Britain is unwilling to unwrap state involvement in killings, but it is also the fact the Unionists will not consider any narratives that suggest that they were anything but innocent victims of terrorists. It is also the case that in major cases; Pat Finucane, Ballymurphy , the command chain in Bloody Sunday, the British will go no further and the Shinners are not willing to rock the boat.

One of the most revolting aspects of Stormont House is that, while austerity kicks in, torrents of money will pour towards the police, orange orders, Loyalist paramilitaries and the burgeoning conciliation industry, not to oppose sectarianism, but to make it an unremarked part of everyday life. The major problem with existing intimidation is not lack of funds, but state forces providing loyalism with a wide impunity from the law and relying on bribery to buy quiet.

Humiliation

The new political elements of Stormont House involve paramilitarism. Sinn Fein seem to be either unaware or indifferent to the political humiliation being poured on them. They will be required to sign a new oath of allegiance to the British state and express hatred of the IRA elements that have been acting as their personal guard. A new international commission will be set up and subject them to periodic health checks.

There is pretence that the new rules will apply to Loyalist gangs, but the extra funds are committed to cross-border crime and other areas that might involve republicans. Not a penny is earmarked to combating everyday violence by Loyalists and there is widespread indifference to the failure of a recent conference to bribe loyalism and the subsequent uptick in sectarian and racist intimidation. 

Yet in one way the new deal represents a fresh start. It strips away forever the promises of democratisation and prosperity. Sinn Fein and their supporters must abandon claims that there is anything more to the deal than sharing out sectarian privilege. 

For their part the sharp tug on the reins from Britain means unionists must abandon the idea of forcing Sinn Fein out of the executive. The patronage and corruption must be paid for by working the system.

Decay

Sinn Fein and the DUP are parties of capital. They are  perfectly happy to share the spoils of office. They do however have to look to their respective bases. In the case of Sinn Fein we can expect the decay of working class support to continue at an accelerated pace. Their immediate problems lie south of the border, where their claims to be an anti-austerity party have been cut away. In the     absence of a place in coalition government they face an overall strategic collapse.

More serious problems arise within unionism. A large middle class layer based on the loyal orders and a violent gangster element depend upon sectarianism, which continues to be sponsored by the state. If they are enraged enough they will split. In the absence of a single unionist leader and the loss of the first ministers' post the administration will collapse. 

It is this background struggle that explains the current agreement. Claims of a fresh start simply will not wash. This is a process drawing its final breath. It musters the support of only two parties. Rather than a finished agreement it was what was on the page when the British cried finis. Many elements are headings - kicked down the road for further elaboration. Major elements such as past state atrocities have simply been abandoned. Claims of a stable and independent administration have been abandoned and the British have appeared from behind the stage to implement welfare reform. If they are in charge what is the point of a devolved assembly? 

Now Peter Robinson is standing down as leader of the DUP. His banner of pragmatism and business-like sectarian sharing out of resources and office has been torn apart by his own party. He saw off an attempt to unseat him by moving first and now uses patronage to ensure that only those loyal to himself gain office. He is now advancing his supporters to ensure control of party and Assembly when he steps down. 

The shortcoming of this method is that his opponents, excluded from office, will become more embittered.  The expulsion of the racist and sectarian Ruth Patterson and her announcement that she will be the candidate of the far right is the beginning of a process of fragmentation. A rightward moving official unionism offers a home.

A stable unionism able to finally form a working administration with Sinn Fein seems like a big ask. Unless there is a miracle the next election unionism will find itself in the majority but without the single party that would give it the First Minister’s office. Martin McGuinness is already preparing for a fresh crisis by declaring that He does not want to be called First Minister - apparently he will answer to anything!  Unionist leader Trimble once remarked that the task of the peace process was to ensure that Sinn Fein had been house trained—it appears history has proved him right.

Frantic support

What keeps the show on the road is the frantic support of Irish nationalism. None of the revisions of the peace process since the original Good Friday Agreement involved any demands from nationalists. They have all been frantic attempts to move the process to the right and placate unionism. The nationalist programme is that there be quiet and that within that quiet the church and nationalist middle class get their share of the loot.

Close behind them stands the trade union leadership. They constituted a peace process decrying all forms of resistance long before there was a process. Today they practice partnership through constant lobbying in Stormont committees.

For the first time ever they opposed the administration over the austerity measures in the 2014 Stormont House agreement. Industrial action was launched around the slogan "no deal." A furious row broke out in the bureaucracy. Within weeks the campaign was abandoned. ICTU representative Peter Bunting said that a deal - any deal - was the central demand of his movement.

In the week before the "Fresh Start" agreement ICTU   lobbied at Stormont.    

"Devolution, if it means anything, is the right and duty of those we elect to govern in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland. "   They said.

In the week following the agreement, when an unprecedented attack on the working class had been agreed and was under way they said - nothing.

The Irish peace process represents the victory of imperialism and Irish capitalism over the republican     revolt, the working class as a whole having been disarmed by social partnership between union leaders and capitalism. 

We were promised that a victorious imperialism would bring democracy and prosperity.  What we have is corruption and mass poverty.

We must begin the grim task of building a working class resistance. We should start by saying what we see, by living in the real world, no matter how dreadful, and rejecting the dreamtime of current Irish politics.