|
Westminster vote in the
North of Ireland
The Orange card trumps the Green.
Austerity wins the election.
A local writer once remarked that the new
Northern Ireland reminded him of nothing so much as the old Northern Ireland.
This truism was confirmed by May's Westminster election, which could easily
have been taking place in 1955.
It was an exercise in sectarian head counting,
used ffectively by the unionists through "unity" candidates to force the
Alliance party out of East Belfast and Sinn Fein out of Fermanagh/South
Tyrone. The end result was triumph for unionism, with the DUP holding 8
seats. The British result means that dreams of being king makers
in a hung parliament are gone, but this hardly matters, given the level
of support that Cameron has offered Unionism. The re-appointment of Theresa
Villiers as secretary of state means a continuation of existing British
policy – contempt for Sinn Fein, demands for a level of austerity that
will plunge many below the poverty line and an insistence that the political
settlement here depends on its acceptance
by the DUP, who now have a veto on any form of political progress. The
other element of the unionist vote is the recovery of the Unionist Party
with two seats, although they flatlined on votes. The result indicates
that the DUP will never succeed in wiping out the unionists and that the
unionist all-class alliance of the ‘50s will never be re-established.
Current stability rests on nationalist capitulation rather than unionist
strength.
Catholic card
Sinn Fein played the Catholic card, with
Gerry Kelly publishing statistics on the religious composition of North
Belfast in an unsuccessful attempt to force unity behind himself. Many
liberals expressed shock, but this was not the first nor the only attempt
to play the sectarian card – for some time Sinn Fein have been proposing
Catholic unity candidates to the middle class SDLP. Of course the
whole Good Friday agreement with Sinn Fein signed up to, is based
on sectarian division.
Sinn Fein has little choice but to play
the Catholic card. The Stormont House agreement means that they are no
longer able to claim that there will be a democratization of civil
society or of the state and a gradual decline in sectarian conflict. Many
of their supporters believe that they are fighting against the implementation
of austerity, but they have already agreed 99% of the measures in Stormont.
All that is left is to call for a vote to keep “the other side” out.
Orange card
But the Green card has nothing of the
strength of the Orange. The dynamics of a sectarian society are such that
it is impossible to unite the underdog in a sectarian cabal. To support
sectarianism is to underwrite your own second class status, so there is
always a minority supporting a democratic solution and anxious to overcome
the existing order.
In fact the main outcome of the election
was that the institutionalisation of sectarianism has reached its limit.
There is a growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, in part because
of the unending demonstrations of sectarian supremacy. The Sinn Fein vote
has fallen, dramatically so in the key seat of West Belfast. The SDLP have
held 3 seats to Sinn Fein’s 4 – a disaster for a party that aimed to have
nationalist hegemony in the North as a springboard for a place in a coalition
government in the South.
Their support will fall more sharply in
the near future. The last vote had just been counted when Secretary of
state Villiers called for the implementation of the Stormont House Agreement.
Peter Robinson agreed, saying that Sinn Fein had been given a free run
at the elections and now had to get down to business. The hollowness of
the election process was laid bare. It was only a sideshow, clearing the
way for a predetermined austerity. McGuinness’s response to calls
to sign off on the deal was an incoherent suggestion that he and Robinson
unite to ask Cameron for more money! The current crisis is a search
for cover for his party, but austerity will be imposed in any case, without
their formal agreement if necessary.
Peak Sinn Fein
The election marks a watershed. We have
had peak Sinn Fein and a growing realization of the disaster the Stormont
administration represents for workers. In the short term that means more
reaction, but it is also true that the barricade that Sinn Fein presents
to the advance of a working class movement must be removed.
The new round of austerity will hit harder
in the North of Ireland than anywhere else. The Stormont parties have racked
up extra charges and the measures will apply in a very short timeframe
to areas suffering multiple deprivation. 20,000 public sector jobs are
to go with the insane idea that what passes locally for private industry
will take up the slack.
The major loser was trade union credibility.
The local trade unions called a truce while they waited for Labour to be
elected. Local politicians (Sinn Fein) were to intercede for them. Now
they are without a strategy.
It is an extremely dangerous situation.
The new austerity measures, with the extra cuts in the Tory manifesto and
the possibility of even further cuts if corporation tax is reduced, will
hit like a lightning bolt. There will inevitably be social
unrest. There will be desperation within Sinn Fein, seeing their entry
into southern government slipping away. In the DUP there is vicious infighting,
with Robinson forming a laager of loyal supporters and excluding conspirators
further to the right.
However, in the absence of a coherent
socialist current opposed to all the aspects of Stormont House, the attack
dog of sectarianism is at heel to divide the working class further and
suppress the possibility of a united fightback. |
|