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West Belfast: A socialist breakthrough?
 
In the general sectarian gloom and grim preparation for a looming austerity offensive that marked the Westminster election in the North of Ireland one result stood out like a beacon - the vote for Gerry Carroll in West Belfast.
 
Socialist Democracy were not part of the Carroll campaign. We supported Fra Hughes in North Belfast   because he opposed both the political and economic aspects of the Stormont house agreement and called for pndependent organization of the workers. We thought this and exemplary campaign and the solid vote of over 500 worthwhile. 
 
Carroll, an SWP member and former member of the student union  bureaucracy, standing under the banner of their People Before Profit front, gained 7000 votes. Does this represent a major breakthrough for the socialist movement?
 
This will shortly be put to the test. However the history of the SWP, across Ireland and in West Belfast, is not such as to give rise to confidence.
 
Save our seafront
 
They gained their initial electoral base a decade ago, standing against the Iraq war and in opposition to water charges. They have steadily built their vote since then, applying the "save our seafront" strategy that elected  Richard Boyd-Barrett in Dun Laoghaire. In Dublin this involves organizing among residents on local development issues and popular boycott campaigns around water and household charges and avoiding deeper issues.
 
The process that saw Gerry elected in the last local government elections involved: a student base arising from his leadership role in the fight to defend Education Maintenance Allowance, support from residents protesting local development issues, of which the largest is a project to redevelop Casement Park, and strong support from the UNITE union, reviving a long-standing tradition of Labourism that historically emerges in West Belfast following the collapse of Republicanism.
 
Political caution
 
The key aspect of this success has been extreme political caution. At the centre of the various property deals sits Sinn Fein. The Casement Park deal is a glaring example of a sectarian carve up at Stormont followed by the tearing up of planning and safety regulatory frameworks to ram the deal through. Exposure of corruption is answered by abuse and declarations by the Sinn Fein minister that the development will be rammed through anyway. In years of activity Gerry has never linked Sinn Fein corruption to the protests. Even when his posters were torn down by Sinn Fein supporters and abusive graffiti appeared he was  unable to name the perpetrators.
 
This peace pact with Sinn Fein manifested also itself in this election by Carroll's silence when the Shinners tried to mobilize a Catholic vote in North Belfast.
 
Economic programme 
 
A similar picture emerges when we look at the labour vote. His economic programme is culled straight from the handbook of the trade union bureaucracy: austerity is "ideological" - based on wrong ideas held by politicians and we can use elections to "send a message" (to make them change their minds?).   Carroll and his supporters are supporters of the Peace process. They want to win seats in Stormont so that they can move the administration to the left – totally ignoring the sectarian and colonial nature of the statelet.
 
This reformist labourism is expressed in the mantra "we are not Unionist or Nationalist, but socialist."  This is an expression of traditional trade union neutrality on the   national question - a neutrality that always involves capitulation to loyalism - both PB4P and the union  bureaucracies have informal links with loyalist paramilitarism, seen as in some way representing working class protestants.
 
Truce
 
The Westminster election was marked by a furious debate in the trade union movement. Following a massive public sector strike the bureaucrats called a truce and decided to wait for Red Ed to be elected. PB4P stood with the  bureaucracy. 

Their manifesto read: 

“What’s the alternative to austerity?
 Lobby Westminster to increase income tax on the super rich, not reduce corporation tax for big businesses”.
Whatever conviction this nonsense carried in the run-up to a Miliband government, it is the purest excrement when applied to Cameron and the Tory wolf pack. Both the Trade union movement and the majority of socialists in the North of Ireland are left totally dismasted, speaking in tongues when they should be presenting the basis for a fightback.  The conservative victory has led to a major   strategic crisis. Resistance now will be on the streets and in the workplaces. An alternative to bureaucratic capitulation will have to be hammered out.
 
The 7000 strong vote gives Gerry Carroll in a unique position to call a conference of trade union, community and political activists able to act independently and build an ongoing resistance.
 
Or he could keep his head down and try and translate the vote into a seat in the forthcoming Stormont elections.
 
The choice is with him and the SWP leadership.
 


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