The message from Irish socialist groups in the aftermath of the Eurostat ruling on Irish Water, denying it the status of a commercial company, could not be simpler.  The ruling is a victory for the non-payment campaign. A new push around non-payment will see the collapse of Irish Water and of the plans to charge for water.

Reality is more complex. The trigger for the ruling was resistance to austerity from the left and from the mass of the population. The denial of commercial status for Irish Water came from the organs of the Troika, the representatives of  vulture capitalism whose programme in Ireland is identical to that being pursued in Greece. The response is not; “one more push,” but a reformulation of strategy so as to take account of both the local gombeen capitalists and the representatives of imperialism behind them. 

Concessions

It is true that mass refusal to pay was a major setback of the government and is a factor in the Eurostat ruling. However the main basis for the ruling was the concessions that the coalition government made to head off the non-payment movement.

The concessions were a cap of €260 for water charges minus €100 “water conservation” rebate – essentially a bribe to get people to sign up. There were also a series of payments to water treatment that came from government funds. The   Central Statistics Office (CSO) lists Government subsidises for treating water: Households are currently being charged €3.70 per 1,000 litres of drinking water and wastewater, but that the "real" cost is €5.42. The prices are being kept low because the Government not only subsidises household bills, but also pays another €1.72 per 1,000 litres to cover the cost of child allowances and the cap.  

The Government has committed to not changing the   charging structure, including the cap, until at least 2019. Even with these concessions under 50% of households paid.

The coalition was treading a fine line between conciliating the public and conciliating the Troika. Now Eurostat has pushed it off the tightrope.

A commercial water charge

The demand is for a commercial water charge. At the very least this requires a removal of the €100 rebate.  Removing water treatment subsidies would add a 46% increase in bills.  

ESRI economist Dr Edgar Morgenroth said that; 

"The true cost of providing water and wastewater is probably €500 to €600."

The great strength of Eurostat, the ECB and the Troika is that they need do little themselves. There is the sovereign debt. There is the Financial Stability Act that constrains government spending and there are the Eurostat rules. The cost of Irish   water falls back onto the government balance sheet – solving the issue is up to them. Ireland is facing a small-scale SYRIZA moment – do as you are told or face financial strangulation.

The government is being invited to launch civil war on the population and push through a full commercialisation of water. They are almost certainly too weak to do so and the cost of Irish Water can be borne, no matter how uncomfortably, within the national budget. However they are equally unlikely to give up what they have – they can only justify the immense cost of water meters if they are eventually used. From their perspective the rollout of Irish Water as a company has succeeded as most debate has focused on charging rather than the privatisation process. The best option is to press ahead in low gear to establish the charging regime and then to launch a second push to increase the charges and abolish subsidies. 

In any case the mass privatisation of Irish resources and services, with transport to the fore, will almost certainly be accelerated, given union acceptance in the Lansdowne Road agreement. 

Instability

The overall outcome of the Eurostat agreement is a gradually increasing instability in Ireland. The Labour party has committed suicide in the service of capitalism. There is mass discontent and a large, if fragmented, resistance. An almost certain outcome of the coming election is a coalition that will be far weaker than the current one. It will fear the masses but lack any ability or will to resist the ongoing demands of the Troika. The judgement of Eurostat is not a step forward for the movement but rather a new stage of the struggle that involves direct confrontation with the forces involved in the ongoing blitzkrieg on the Greek workers. 
 
For most activists it seems that a determined non-payment campaign and a strong left vote are a realistic strategy that can bring victory. However when we step back and look at the level of control organised by the troika and their utter ruthlessness in the interests of capital, alongside the criminality of our own ruling class, we begin to see that this strategy is unrealistic.  No matter how unlikely it seems, our old instinct of revolution at home and solidarity with revolutionary movements across Europe is at heart the greater realism.